"Iron bars or libraries: Which will reduce crime more?" by Kenneth Shepherd

Graduate Program

Economics

Degree Name

Master of Arts (MA)

Semester of Degree Completion

2012

Thesis Director

Dan Hickman

Thesis Committee Member

Mukti Upadhay

Thesis Committee Member

Tim Mason

Abstract

This study examines how government spending affects crime. Specifically, it is a longitudinal study of property crime in Illinois. The main model is: Property Crime = B1+B2(Deterrence spending)+B3(Other Social spending)+B4(Lagged Unemployment rate). Other Social Spending is Library spending, Hospital spending, and Higher Education spending by state and local governments in real per-capita form combined. Deterrence spending is the combined spending on police and corrections in real percapita form. The results from an OLS model on this equation showed Other Social spending was 50% more effective at reducing property crime than Deterrence spending. However, there was some multicollinearity and a time trend in the data, so the results could use verification.

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