Graduate Program
Economics
Degree Name
Master of Arts (MA)
Semester of Degree Completion
2011
Thesis Director
Linda Ghent
Thesis Committee Member
James Bruehler
Thesis Committee Member
Ali Moshtagh
Abstract
Success at the box office can be difficult to predict. While one combination of stars, budget, or praise produces a blockbuster, the slightest tweaking in a sequel can produce a bomb. The objective of this research is to model the opening weekend box office revenue per screen based on a set of variables parsed from the Internet Movie Database and using a critical review index variable retrieved from Rotten Tomatoes.com. First, the author estimates opening weekend revenue per screen from a sample of 1116 movies as a function of the movies' characteristics, such as genre, MP AA rating, critical rating, and budget. Then the author takes a random sample of the data set and models opening weekend revenue per screen with several additional variables. Results from the full sample indicate production budget, Rotten Tomatoes Critic Rating, and a prestigious director significantly increase opening weekend box office revenue per screen. Results from the random sample indicate that films that were sequels or prequels or that incorporated a significant advance in special effects also had higher opening weekend revenues per screen on average. Surprisingly results from the random sample also showed that films which included adult content or which were distributed by one of the big six distributors did not have significantly different opening weekend revenue per screen than those that did not.
Recommended Citation
Muser, Jennifer, "Turning the silver screen to gold: An analysis of opening weekend box office success" (2011). Masters Theses. 204.
https://thekeep.eiu.edu/theses/204
